Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica, Vol 14, No 3 (2018)

Dynamics of Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: A P-ARDL Model Approach

Ayodeji Opeyemi Ogunlesi, Koye Gerry Bokana


This study empirically examined the long- and short-run dynamics of agricultural productivity in 37 selected countries in sub-Saharan Africa between 1990 and 2016 employing the recent Panel Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model. The model estimate revealed a cointegrating but no short-run significant relationship between agricultural output and the independent variables. The Cobb-Douglass production function thus supports long-run but not short-run estimation of agricultural production in this region during the reviewed period. The study found that labour and the real exchange rate have a positive and significant long-run influence on agricultural productivity while capital, degree of openness and per-capita income exhibit a negative but significant relationship with such productivity. The negative and significant Error Correction Term value showed that all the variables move towards long-run stability at a slow annual speed of adjustment of 29.2%; the influence of the independent variables thus enhances agricultural productivity in the long run. Based on these findings, the formulation and implementation of effective macroeconomic policies are recommended to stabilize the exchange rate, encourage exports, optimally utilize capital, and enhance infrastructure provision with a view to boosting agricultural productivity to stimulate economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa.


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