EuroEconomica, Vol 20, No 1 (2008)

The theoretical-methodological basis of the model of macro-economic forecast, of labor market and population

Georgeta Modiga


During the last decade of the 20th century, modeling the macro-economic evolutions and implicitly modeling the evolutions in the social insurance systems, including and especially the pension systems, gained a very strong “anchor”, which allowed and allows at present the realization of multiple evolution scenarios, with a pretty big probability of achievement. This anchor, or better said this anchor-variable is the “inflation rate”, usually calculated as the consumption price index, respectively as its percentage variation from one period of time to another.
The last decades of the 20th century and the first five years of the 21st century were characterized by an extremely accelerated rhythm of innovation, as well as by an acceleration and a multiplication of capital flows, which practically led to the phenomenon known as “economy globalization” or simply as “globalization”, as it extended outside the economical sphere towards all the spheres and sectors of the social life.
This process has been accelerated by the “transition from plan to market” of the economies from Central and Eastern Europe, as a consequence of the fall of the totalitarian communist system, which dominated this part of Europe half a century, and of the end of the era known as “the Cold War”. The economic globalization movement, together with the transition from plan to market as well as with China’s entering into the international economic circuits, grew enormously the investment possibilities and thus the possibilities of placing the capital accumulated in the western countries during the autarchy period which characterized the Cold War era.


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